Smaller (and better) Cities

Many cities have been struggling with declining populations for decades. However, depopulation will become widespread in the future, causing panic for mayors who assume that cities have only two alternatives: grow or die.

In the August 2024 issue of Ecocities Emerging, I cited various reports on falling birthrates and their implications for the future populations of cities, especially smaller cities. One recent study described in Scientific American projected that 15,000 US cities could have a fraction of their current populations by 2100.

Rather than panic, several publications from the United Nations and other institutions recommend that cities, states, and countries focus on human development strategies involving urban revitalization, equitable education, improved healthcare, gender equality, economic justice, sustainable infrastructure, reliable public transportation, affordable housing, reduced pollution, climate action, and renewable energy.

Improvements in human development might or might not produce the birthrates that elected leaders want. But progress on these goals, which include many of our Ecocity Standard goals, will nevertheless help future generations live healthier, happier, and more fulfilling lives regardless of their size.

Experts often acknowledge that improving human development will be difficult without an economy capable supporting these strategies. But there are ways in which shrinking cities can regain or maintain good economies according to Smaller Cities in a Shrinking World: Learning to Thrive without Growth by Alan Mallach.

In this 2023 book, Mallach recommends networked localization, meaning participating in the global economy wherever necessary and feasible while maximizing local production for local consumption. That sounds a lot like an economic development strategy I heard about in planning school 45 years ago. But Mallach offers reasons to believe that it might be more successful today.

Smaller cities can now reduce or eliminate dependence on large, for-profit energy corporations using distributed generation from renewable power sources including wind, solar, and biomass. Even something as simple as active transportation can help. In “Bicycling and Portland’s Green Dividend”, (Ecocities Emerging January 2020), I wrote how Portland’s ecomobility reduces its reliance on global car and oil corporations, generating a $1 billion green dividend for the local economy,

Tech improvements allow distributed manufacturing processes in which designs created at a central location can be transmitted to decentralized 3D printers capable of producing products locally for local consumption at prices that are competitive with global manufacturers.

Local manufacturing cannot completely replace global manufacturing for many items. But, according to Mallach, smaller cities can produce food, clothing, furniture, small appliances, office supplies, and more. He adds that local manufacturing thrives when supported by public/private cooperation and what he calls an ecosystem of workspaces and incubators. This all takes investment, but Mallach believes the necessary funding is manageable even for small communities.

Smaller cities can also capitalize on the realization that many jobs can now be performed remotely thanks to advancements in communication technology. During the Covid pandemic, over one third of the American workforce worked remotely and many employees claim that remote work improved their lives as well as their productivity. Mallach writes that communities arguably benefit more from workers than workplaces if they cannot have both.

Some cities, like Tulsa, Oklahoma, have been offering cash as an incentive for remote workers to move there. But Mallach believes remote workers are more attracted by a city’s quality of life. Cities can create a welcoming public realm with thoughtfully designed parks, interesting squares, public art, celebrations, walkable streets, and a transportation network that prioritizes walking, bicycling, and transit while securing space for outdoor cafes and people-friendly activities. The term place-making is often used to describe this process of capitalizing on a city’s assets to create shared and active public spaces that promote well-being, health, and happiness.

Mallach also writes that collaborative, inclusive governance promotes distributed economies and livable cities. If citizens and small business are not actively engaged in the decision-making process, they have little to no influence on local decisions as well as the dictates of the global economy. Conversely, through distributed leadership, cities can shift from top-down control to coordination of the work of diverse communities.

Cities should also adapt to depopulation with new ways of delivering services. Rather than consolidating schools in response to dwindling enrollment, Mallach writes that kids benefit from smaller class sizes and that smaller schools can be integrated within community buildings and senior living complexes. College-age students can remain in smaller cities using satellite campuses that supplement in-person instruction with remote learning provided by larger universities located in regional hubs. Similarly, local clinics can provide excellent healthcare using advances in telehealth services provided by regional hospitals.

It won’t be easy to adapt to depopulation. Under the current model used by the US and other countries, the active workforce (which will be affected by lower birthrates) pays for the healthcare and social security of older generations (which will be growing). Immigration can offset falling birthrates. But newly-elected leaders in the US and other countries promise to not only reduce in-migration but deport migrants already in the country. We need new ways of funding the needs of elderly and low-income people. But some politicians seem more interested in eliminating the social safety net and returning to the dog-eat-dog ethos of a century ago.

In contrast with that gloomy scenario, Mallach argues that we can thrive by applying common sense planning principles like those in the Ecocity Standards. Implementing these standards is worthwhile work for the sake of the planet as well as future generations.